THE DECISION BOOK EPUB

adminComment(0)
    Contents:

THE DECISION BOOK FIFTY MODELS FOR STRATEGIC THINKING Mikael Krogerus Roman Tschäppeler Translated by Jenny Piening W WHAT YOU WILL FIND IN THIS BOOK The fifty best decision-making models – well-known and not so well-known – that will help you tackle these questions are. The decision book: fifty models for strategic thinking. byKrogerus, Mikael; Tschäppeler, Borrow this book to access EPUB and PDF files. Decision Book (eBook, ePUB). Fifty models for strategic thinking (New Edition). Decision Book (eBook, ePUB) - Mikael Krogerus; Roman Tschappeler.


The Decision Book Epub

Author:THOMASENA MANGEL
Language:English, Japanese, German
Country:Ecuador
Genre:Technology
Pages:737
Published (Last):04.07.2016
ISBN:873-2-68065-154-4
ePub File Size:15.74 MB
PDF File Size:18.79 MB
Distribution:Free* [*Sign up for free]
Downloads:40830
Uploaded by: LEENA

Download PDF The Decision Book: 50 Models for Strategic Thinking | PDF books Ebook Free Download Here. DOWNLOAD The Decision Book: 50 Models for Strategic Thinking By Mikael Krogerus, Roman Tschäppeler [PDF EBOOK EPUB site]DOWNLOAD The. A building full of books. The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking ( Fully PDF/ePub Download] the decision book eBook.

What issues have arisen? If necessary, jot down more keywords and questions. Now look at the roads that lie ahead of you. We have given six examples. Imagine each one: The road that beckons — what have you always wanted to try? The road that I imagine in my wildest dreams, regardless of whether it is achievable or not — what do you dream of? The road that seems most sensible to me, the one that people whose opinion I value would suggest to me.

The road not travelled — one you have never considered before. The road I have already been down. The road back, to a place you once felt safe. You decide. When was the last time you did something for the first time?

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend. Then imagine the road that you could take.

Over two thousand years ago, Aristotle came to the unsurprising conclusion that what a person wants above all is to be happy. In , the US psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote: After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy, he found that all the responses had five things in common.

Musicians, athletes, actors, doctors and artists describe how they are happiest when they are absorbed in an often exhausting activity — totally contradicting the commonly held view that happiness has to do with relaxation. What is preventing you from being happy? The model has two axes: On the graph, write down the last three challenges you have faced, and how you felt about them. This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we are aware of ourselves and that we like to tell others about.

It decreases in size the more we build up a trusting relationship with others. There are things that we do not know about ourselves but that others can see clearly. And there are things that we think we are expressing clearly, but which others interpret completely differently.

In this quadrant, feedback can be enlightening but also hurtful. There are aspects of ourselves that are hidden from ourselves as well as others. We are more complex and multifaceted than we think. From time to time something unknown rises to the surface from our unconscious — for example in a dream. Choose adjectives fun, unreliable, etc. Then let others friends, colleagues choose adjectives to describe you. The adjectives are then entered in the appropriate panes of the window. Try this exercise with your partner.

Are there things about your partner that you wished you had never discovered? The Johari window provides a model of personal awareness. But why do we find it so difficult to recognise our mistakes? Why do we even go as far as defending our actions when we are confronted with their shortcomings?

Rather than asking for forgiveness, we embark on one of the more unlikeable human attributes: This acts as a protective mechanism that enables us to sleep at night and frees us from self-doubt. We see only what we want to see, and ignore everything that contradicts our view.

We look for arguments that reinforce our position. But how can we overcome this dissonance? Either by changing our behaviour or our attitude.

A great nation is like a great man: Having realised it, he admits it. Having admitted it, he corrects it. He considers those who point out his faults as his most benevolent teachers. Lao Zi When were you last aware of a cognitive dissonance in yourself? And when in your partner? Models explain how everything is connected, how we should act and what we should and should not do.

But do they prevent us from seeing things for what they really are? The historian of science and philosopher Thomas Kuhn argued that science usually just works towards corroborating its models, and reacts with ignorance when — as is often the case — the models do not correspond to reality.

This insight may not have earned him a Nobel Prize, but he did land himself a professorship at an elite university. We often believe so strongly in models that they take on the status of reality. A good example of this is the ontological proof of the existence of God, which Kant explored in his philosophy.

He maintained that if we are able to imagine a being as perfect as God, then he must exist. Black box model p. And what do you believe in despite having no evidence to support it? It reveals behavioural traits and tendencies. You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four different perspectives: How much of a team person are you, and how much of an individualist?

Do you pay more attention to content or to form? What is more important to you: Do you feel more global than local? Use a pen to connect the lines.

You are only creating a snapshot. And note that the sum of an axis should always be ten you cannot be ten points local and ten points global. What is preventing you from being the way you would like to be?

Fill in the model for yourself. Then ask your partner or a good friend to fill it in for you. Compare the results. The art of dressing without dressing up. But why? The Swiss author Pascal Mercier says this: What matters is to move surely and calmly, with the appropriate humour and the appropriate melancholy in the temporally and spatially internal landscape that we are. Or to put it another way, how often do you think, wistfully or thankfully, about what has been? How often do you have the feeling that you are really concentrating on what you are doing at a particular moment?

How often do you imagine what the future may hold, and how often do you worry about what lies ahead of you? The three examples shown in the model on the right can also represent cultural values: But you can ruin the present by worrying about the future. Crossroads model p. Stability, on the other hand, is to do with how deeply information is anchored in our brains. Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level of retrievability.

But if you see the number in front of you, you will recognise it immediately. Imagine that you are learning Chinese. You have learned a word and memorised it. Without practice, over time it will become increasingly difficult to remember. The amount of time it takes for you to forget it completely can be calculated, and ideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in the process of forgetting it. The more often you are reminded of the word, the longer you will remember it for.

Jan Cox After learning something, you should ideally refresh your memory of it at the following intervals: Traditionally at opposite ends of the political spectrum, Labour and Conservative have moved so close together in terms of shared economic and social policies, that there is little left to distinguish them.

Traditional definitions can also be misleading. Its position on race and nationalism means that the BNP is generally regarded as radically right-wing, yet it is far to the left even of Labour when it comes to some social issues like health and housing. The clear-cut political divisions of the past may have become blurred, but there are models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters.

One of the most famous of these tools is called the political compass. You can plot your political position on this model, the axes of which are left—right and liberal—authoritarian. Note that the left—right axis relates not to political orientation in the traditional sense, but to economic policy: The liberal—authoritarian axis relates to individual rights: Always radical, never consistent.

Walter Benjamin Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the general election by politicalcompass. Ask yourself where you stand. Where did you stand ten years ago? But how can job dissatisfaction be measured?

This model will help you to evaluate your job situation. To what extent are my current tasks being imposed on me or demanded of me? To what extent do my tasks match my abilities? To what extent does my current task correspond to what I really want? If the shape of the sail is always the same, then ask yourself the following: To what extent do they match your abilities, and to what extent do they correspond to what you want?

Our dreams are acted out in the future, and our hopes are pinned on fulfilling these dreams. Perhaps because we think we can determine our future. However, we tend to forget that every future has a past, and that our past is the foundation on which our future is built. This is how it works: Then add the following to the timeline: Memory is the only paradise from which we cannot be driven.

Jean Paul Choose a timeframe and note the following: What were your goals? What did you learn? What obstacles did you overcome? What were your successes? Which people played an important role? It is the curse of talented people. His shortcomings are overlooked and his successes admired for the ease with which they are achieved.

To begin with, he profits from this attractive yet fatal combination of talent and charisma. That is, until the stupid ones become hardworking: The personal potential trap can be precisely traced. In the model are three curves: Normally a talented person cruises along until a crisis point is reached. The way to go is to promise 80 and deliver Are you prepared to expect less of yourself than what you think others expect of you? The model shows three curves: If the three diverge too much, you will fall into the personal potential trap.

Will Facebook survive? What will be the next big thing? Will it be relevant and useful — and will people love it? Noboby knows the answers to these questions, but the people at Stamford consulting company Gartner might know more than most.

What people love about technology is, basically, that it works. Emailing works. The internet, if you have a bit of time on your hands, works. Text messaging works. What do they all have in common? They all went through each of the five phases of the hype cycle: Technology trigger. The product is on the market and you hear about it everywhere: Peak of inflated expectations.

The hype is at its peak. But people start to find mistakes. You hear: Trough of disillusionment. The product fails to meet expectations.

The not-so-cool people use it. Slope of enlightenment. The media have stopped covering the technology, the hype is over. This is when many technologies simply fall out of the market. But some businesses might continue to experiment. They might change the original version or find new uses for it.

Plateau of productivity. The benefits of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted. Often it is the 2. You hear… nothing any more. People simply use it. Love is for ever as long as it lasts. The chasm p. Then you start having second thoughts. After a certain time you either split up or make a long-term commitment.

There is not one single, well-established concept in the field of management on which you can build a testable theory. What are the subtle differences between functioning and non-functioning structures? But what we do know, thanks to US journalist Mark Buchanan, is that communication is vital for a healthy working environment, and that communication takes place on two levels: Who is saying what to whom?

Who moves when, how often and where to? In what tone of voice is A speaking to B? Who is stressed, who seems to be suffering from burnout? Who do you talk to most of all? Whose opinion do you value most? With whom do you speak and how often, and what are the consequences of your discussions? Arrange your discussions with colleagues in the matrix. And could you say with which five people you communicate the most?

And could you also say what all your acquaintanceships have in common? The following model attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of your address book. Go through your contacts list and divide up your contacts according to the following criteria: This is also interesting: Family tree model p. Who would you like to see more of? Who would you prefer to see less of?

What do you know? Begin with the top right field. Some people learn from them, while others repeat them. Here is what you need to know about mistakes.

There are different types of mistake: The model compares the different levels on which mistakes occur with slices of Emmental cheese.

In a mistake-free world, the cheese would have no holes. But in the real world, the cheese is cut into thin slices, and every slice has many holes that are in different places in different slices. Imagine the holes as conduits for mistakes.

A mistake remains unnoticed or irrelevant if it penetrates only one hole in one of the slices. But it can lead to catastrophe if the holes in the different slices align and the mistake passes through all the holes in all of the defences.

The model can be used in the fields of medicine and air traffic, for example — and anywhere where mistakes can have fatal consequences. Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes. Results optimisation model p. The pilot makes a mistake. The co-pilot reacts incorrectly. While attempting to rectify the mistake, another is made. Are you having sex? Do you have a family?

Are you intellectually stimulated? Scoring three yeses is paradise; two yeses is what you need to be happy, and one yes is what you need to survive.

He categorised human needs as follows: If they are satisfied, a person no longer thinks about them. The last two are aspirations or personal growth needs; they can never really be satisfied. The pyramids model becomes interesting if we contrast our aspirations with our needs. Rule of thumb for the Western world: Create your own personal basic needs pyramids: What do you have? What do you want? Innovative ideas usually emerge when we leave our comfort zone, or when we break the rules. The task: Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lines without lifting your pen from the paper.

The solution: The trick is to extend the lines outside the box. This puzzle is often used as an example of creative thinking. He developed the Restricted Environmental Stimulation Technique REST , which involves a person spending time in a darkened room with no visual or auditory stimulation. On the contrary: A person who wants to think outside the box is better off thinking inside a box.

It is often used in marketing to define target groups. The idea was developed by the French sociologist Emile Durkheim. On the next double page is a rarely used version by another French sociologist, Pierre Bourdieu, in the form of an axis model. The narrowness of the Sinus groups is often criticised.

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu model, despite its limitations. It shows us that if a majority have become used to one system, it is difficult for another system to establish itself. Habit is stronger than the desire for improvement. Our origins are our future.

Martin Heidegger Where would you position yourself? Where would you position your parents? Where would you like to be positioned? Bourdieu model: Where would you position yourself? And where would you like to be positioned? Strictly speaking, this is not a model but a technique for know-alls. How can you master this desirable technique? First-order observers see things as they appear to them.

For them, the world is simply there. Second-order observers, on the other hand, attribute what the first-order observers see to how they see it. In other words, second-order observers observe a way of observing. If, for example, you criticise a football referee for making a wrong decision, you are a second-order observer: During the act of observing, first-order observers are unaware of their own way of observing — it is their blind spot.

Recognising this blind spot enables second-order observers to become know-alls. They are able to point out to the first-order observers that it is possible to observe differently and thus see things differently. In the best-case scenario, the single loop the first-order observation is best practice.

Something that works well is not changed but simply repeated. In the worst-case scenario it is worst practice — the same mistake is repeated, or a problem is solved without questioning how it arose in the first place. In double-loop learning you think about and question what you are doing, and try to break your own pattern, not simply by doing something differently, but by thinking about why you do it the way you do it.

What are the objectives and values behind your actions? If you are fully aware of these, you may be able to change them. The problem inherent in the double loop is the discrepancy between what we say we are about to do known as espoused theory and what we actually do known as theory in use.

If we really want to change something, it is not enough to create guidelines for our employees or ourselves, or to give directives. These only reach us as a command espoused theory.

Real changes occur when we reassess our more deeply rooted reasons, objectives and values. Be the change you want to see.

Which pattern would you like to break? What is preventing you from breaking it? The abbreviation AI stands for Appreciative Inquiry, a method attributed to the American management expert David Cooperrider that involves concentrating on the strengths, positive attributes and potential of a company or a person, rather than weaknesses.

Every person, every system, every product, every idea has faults. In the best-case scenario, an awareness of this fact can lead to a determined pursuit of perfection. But in many cases, focusing too strongly on the flaws of an idea or project stifles the open and positive approach that is essential for good working practices.

The basic principle is to take an idea that is not yet fully developed and to continue developing it, instead of prematurely abandoning it. People often reveal their character in their approach to discussions. Four basic types can be identified, according to how people react to suggestions: And most fools do. Benjamin Franklin The next time you are in a group discussion, make a note of how each person presents their arguments.

In the s, the model experienced a renaissance as a party game: Surprisingly, Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from Pamela Anderson.

The small-world phenomenon becomes even more interesting when it comes to viral marketing: Social networks like LinkedIn and Facebook show how many contacts you have and through how many other people you know these contacts. See also: We wear 20 per cent of the clothes we have in our wardrobes and spend 80 per cent of our time with 20 per cent of our friends. But anybody who wants to plan their time optimally should know that roughly 20 per cent of the time spent on a task leads to 80 per cent of the results.

I am definitely going to take a course on time management… just as soon as I can work it into my schedule. Louis E. Long-tail model p. In , the editor-in-chief o f Wired, Chris Anderson, claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on the internet is also actually sold — however bizarre or unnecessary the product.

It appears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead of uniformity. Anderson used a demand curve to illustrate his claim. On the far left, the curve rises sharply upwards. Here are the best-sellers and blockbusters that account for 20 per cent of the market.

Then the curve levels out gently to the right. This is where we find the less popular books and films. This part of the curve is much wider, spanning many more products, than the peak. Instinctively one would think the Pareto principle is right: But the figures suggest something different: Pareto principle p.

Individual demand may be low, but collectively the niche products are worth more than the best-sellers. It can never be written out in full: Randomness is found in many phenomena that we would like to be able to predict, such as changes in the weather or the movements of share prices.

Inspired by the casino city of Monte Carlo, a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate these apparently incalculable phenomena. If you roll a dice, you know that you will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. This is exactly how the Monte Carlo simulation works: Why is the Monte Carlo model important? Because it reminds us that models do not represent reality, but are simply an approximation of reality. You repeat the process many times.

Your result is determined statistically if the majority of the dots usually land inside the circle, you can predict that this is where your dot is likely to land in future , but there is still a certain margin of error. How do we know what we know? Does the past help us predict the future? Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level of retrievability. But if you see the number in front of you, you will recognise it immediately. Imagine that you are learning Chinese.

You have learned a word and memorised it. Without practice, over time it will become increasingly difficult to remember. The amount of time it takes for you to forget it completely can be calculated, and ideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in the process of forgetting it.

The more often you are reminded of the word, the longer you will remember it for. Jan Cox After learning something, you should ideally refresh your memory of it at the following intervals: one, ten, thirty and sixty days afterwards. Traditionally at opposite ends of the political spectrum, Labour and Conservative have moved so close together in terms of shared economic and social policies, that there is little left to distinguish them.

Traditional definitions can also be misleading. Its position on race and nationalism means that the BNP is generally regarded as radically right-wing, yet it is far to the left even of Labour when it comes to some social issues like health and housing.

The clear-cut political divisions of the past may have become blurred, but there are models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters. One of the most famous of these tools is called the political compass. You can plot your political position on this model, the axes of which are left—right and liberal—authoritarian. Always radical, never consistent.

Walter Benjamin Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the general election by politicalcompass. Ask yourself where you stand. Where did you stand ten years ago? But how can job dissatisfaction be measured? This model will help you to evaluate your job situation. To what extent are my current tasks being imposed on me or demanded of me?

To what extent do my tasks match my abilities? To what extent does my current task correspond to what I really want? To what extent do they match your abilities, and to what extent do they correspond to what you want? Our dreams are acted out in the future, and our hopes are pinned on fulfilling these dreams.

Search PagetoScreen

Perhaps because we think we can determine our future. However, we tend to forget that every future has a past, and that our past is the foundation on which our future is built.

This is how it works: you define a timeframe — e. Memory is the only paradise from which we cannot be driven. Jean Paul Choose a timeframe and note the following: What were your goals? What did you learn? What obstacles did you overcome? What were your successes? Which people played an important role? It is the curse of talented people.

His shortcomings are overlooked and his successes admired for the ease with which they are achieved. To begin with, he profits from this attractive yet fatal combination of talent and charisma. That is, until the stupid ones become hardworking: then he has to watch from the sidelines as he is overtaken by precisely those people who had once enviously looked up to him.

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced. Normally a talented person cruises along until a crisis point is reached. The way to go is to promise 80 and deliver Are you prepared to expect less of yourself than what you think others expect of you? The model shows three curves: my own expectations, the expectations of others and my achievements.

If the three diverge too much, you will fall into the personal potential trap. What will be the next big thing? Will it be relevant and useful — and will people love it? Noboby knows the answers to these questions, but the people at Stamford consulting company Gartner might know more than most.

What people love about technology is, basically, that it works.

The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking

Emailing works. The internet, if you have a bit of time on your hands, works. Text messaging works. What do they all have in common? They all went through each of the five phases of the hype cycle: 1. Technology trigger. Peak of inflated expectations. The hype is at its peak. But people start to find mistakes.

Trough of disillusionment. The product fails to meet expectations. The not-so-cool people use it. Slope of enlightenment. The media have stopped covering the technology, the hype is over.

This is when many technologies simply fall out of the market. But some businesses might continue to experiment. They might change the original version or find new uses for it. Plateau of productivity. The benefits of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted. Often it is the 2. You hear… nothing any more.

Subscribe to RSS

People simply use it. Love is for ever as long as it lasts. Then you start having second thoughts. After a certain time you either split up or make a long-term commitment.

There is not one single, well-established concept in the field of management on which you can build a testable theory. What are the subtle differences between functioning and non-functioning structures?

But what we do know, thanks to US journalist Mark Buchanan, is that communication is vital for a healthy working environment, and that communication takes place on two levels: what we say, and how we say it.

Who moves when, how often and where to? In what tone of voice is A speaking to B? Who is stressed, who seems to be suffering from burnout? Who do you talk to most of all? Whose opinion do you value most? With whom do you speak and how often, and what are the consequences of your discussions? Arrange your discussions with colleagues in the matrix. And could you say with which five people you communicate the most?

And could you also say what all your acquaintanceships have in common? The following model attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of your address book. Go through your contacts list and divide up your contacts according to the following criteria: who you see and how often, and to which group friends, family, acquaintances, colleagues they belong.

Who would you like to see more of? Who would you prefer to see less of? What do you know? Begin with the top right field. Some people learn from them, while others repeat them. Here is what you need to know about mistakes.

The model compares the different levels on which mistakes occur with slices of Emmental cheese. In a mistake-free world, the cheese would have no holes. But in the real world, the cheese is cut into thin slices, and every slice has many holes that are in different places in different slices. Imagine the holes as conduits for mistakes. A mistake remains unnoticed or irrelevant if it penetrates only one hole in one of the slices. But it can lead to catastrophe if the holes in the different slices align and the mistake passes through all the holes in all of the defences.

The model can be used in the fields of medicine and air traffic, for example — and anywhere where mistakes can have fatal consequences. Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes. The pilot makes a mistake. The co-pilot reacts incorrectly. While attempting to rectify the mistake, another is made. Do you have a family? Are you intellectually stimulated? Scoring three yeses is paradise; two yeses is what you need to be happy, and one yes is what you need to survive. If they are satisfied, a person no longer thinks about them.

The last two are aspirations or personal growth needs; they can never really be satisfied. The pyramids model becomes interesting if we contrast our aspirations with our needs. Rule of thumb for the Western world: the things we desire the most are the things we need the least. Create your own personal basic needs pyramids: What do you have? What do you want? Innovative ideas usually emerge when we leave our comfort zone, or when we break the rules. The task: Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lines without lifting your pen from the paper.

The solution: The trick is to extend the lines outside the box. This puzzle is often used as an example of creative thinking.

He developed the Restricted Environmental Stimulation Technique REST , which involves a person spending time in a darkened room with no visual or auditory stimulation. On the contrary: their blood pressure went down, their mood improved and they became more creative.

A person who wants to think outside the box is better off thinking inside a box. Right: two ways to connect the nine points with four lines. It is often used in marketing to define target groups. The idea was developed by the French sociologist Emile Durkheim. On the next double page is a rarely used version by another French sociologist, Pierre Bourdieu, in the form of an axis model.

The narrowness of the Sinus groups is often criticised. Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu model, despite its limitations.

It shows us that if a majority have become used to one system, it is difficult for another system to establish itself. Habit is stronger than the desire for improvement. Our origins are our future. Martin Heidegger Where would you position yourself? Where would you position your parents? Where would you like to be positioned? Bourdieu model: Where would you position yourself? And where would you like to be positioned? Strictly speaking, this is not a model but a technique for know-alls.

How can you master this desirable technique? Simple: you learn how to observe first-order observers. First-order observers see things as they appear to them. For them, the world is simply there. Second-order observers, on the other hand, attribute what the first-order observers see to how they see it. In other words, second-order observers observe a way of observing. During the act of observing, first-order observers are unaware of their own way of observing — it is their blind spot.

Recognising this blind spot enables second-order observers to become know-alls. They are able to point out to the first-order observers that it is possible to observe differently and thus see things differently. In the best-case scenario, the single loop the first-order observation is best practice. Something that works well is not changed but simply repeated. In the worst-case scenario it is worst practice — the same mistake is repeated, or a problem is solved without questioning how it arose in the first place.

In double-loop learning you think about and question what you are doing, and try to break your own pattern, not simply by doing something differently, but by thinking about why you do it the way you do it.

What are the objectives and values behind your actions? If you are fully aware of these, you may be able to change them. The problem inherent in the double loop is the discrepancy between what we say we are about to do known as espoused theory and what we actually do known as theory in use. If we really want to change something, it is not enough to create guidelines for our employees or ourselves, or to give directives.

These only reach us as a command espoused theory. Real changes occur when we reassess our more deeply rooted reasons, objectives and values.

Be the change you want to see. Which pattern would you like to break? What is preventing you from breaking it? The abbreviation AI stands for Appreciative Inquiry, a method attributed to the American management expert David Cooperrider that involves concentrating on the strengths, positive attributes and potential of a company or a person, rather than weaknesses.

Every person, every system, every product, every idea has faults. In the best-case scenario, an awareness of this fact can lead to a determined pursuit of perfection. But in many cases, focusing too strongly on the flaws of an idea or project stifles the open and positive approach that is essential for good working practices. The basic principle is to take an idea that is not yet fully developed and to continue developing it, instead of prematurely abandoning it.

People often reveal their character in their approach to discussions. And most fools do. Benjamin Franklin The next time you are in a group discussion, make a note of how each person presents their arguments. Surprisingly, Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from Pamela Anderson. The small-world phenomenon becomes even more interesting when it comes to viral marketing: who do you know who could spread the word about your idea or product?

Social networks like LinkedIn and Facebook show how many contacts you have and through how many other people you know these contacts. See also: Family tree model p. We wear 20 per cent of the clothes we have in our wardrobes and spend 80 per cent of our time with 20 per cent of our friends. But anybody who wants to plan their time optimally should know that roughly 20 per cent of the time spent on a task leads to 80 per cent of the results. I am definitely going to take a course on time management… just as soon as I can work it into my schedule.

Louis E. In , the editor-in-chief o f Wired, Chris Anderson, claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on the internet is also actually sold — however bizarre or unnecessary the product. It appears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead of uniformity. Anderson used a demand curve to illustrate his claim. On the far left, the curve rises sharply upwards. Here are the best-sellers and blockbusters that account for 20 per cent of the market.

Then the curve levels out gently to the right. This is where we find the less popular books and films. This part of the curve is much wider, spanning many more products, than the peak. But the figures suggest something different: the long tail as Anderson calls it , achieves a higher turnover than the few best-sellers. Individual demand may be low, but collectively the niche products are worth more than the best-sellers.

It can never be written out in full: it continues for an infinite number of decimal places, in a seemingly random sequence of digits. Randomness is found in many phenomena that we would like to be able to predict, such as changes in the weather or the movements of share prices. Inspired by the casino city of Monte Carlo, a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate these apparently incalculable phenomena.

If you roll a dice, you know that you will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. This is exactly how the Monte Carlo simulation works: by running multiple trials based on random sampling to determine an outcome, using a combination of probability calculation and statistics. Why is the Monte Carlo model important? Because it reminds us that models do not represent reality, but are simply an approximation of reality.

You repeat the process many times. Your result is determined statistically if the majority of the dots usually land inside the circle, you can predict that this is where your dot is likely to land in future , but there is still a certain margin of error. Does the past help us predict the future? Why do we never expect unexpected events?

In his book The Problems of Philosophy, Bertrand Russell summarised the answers to all three questions: a chicken that expects to be fed every day assumes that it will continue to be fed every day. It starts to firmly believe that humans are kind. We humans also have to acknowledge that the biggest catastrophes usually come as a complete surprise to us. For example, when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World Trade Center, the public was shocked — the catastrophe seemed to strike completely without warning.

However, in the weeks and months following 11 September , it seemed that practically everything had pointed towards this attack. The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon — our inability to predict the future from the past — the black swan.

In the Western world it was always assumed that all swans were white — until naturalists in the seventeenth century discovered a breed of black swans. What had hitherto been unimaginable was suddenly taken for granted. And it reminds us that we tend to cling most tightly to pillars that we see toppling. What were the black swans — the unexpected events — in your life, and when did they occur?

One of the most famous diffusion studies is an analysis by Bruce Ryan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the s in Greene County, Iowa.

The new type of corn was better than the old sort in every way, yet it took twenty-two years for it to become widely accepted. They were the opinion leaders in the communities, respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and then joined them. Translated into a graph, this development takes the form of a curve typical of the progress of an epidemic. Add to Wishlist. In Stock. Unable to Load Delivery Dates. Enter an Australian post code for delivery estimate. Instant Download.

Description Customer Reviews 1 Product Details Click on the cover image above to read some pages of this book! Happy Money Zen path to a happier and more prosperous life.

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. How to Win Friends and Influence People. Fed Up Navigating and redefining emotional labour for The Algebra of Happiness Finding the equation for a life well lived. Item Added: The Decision Book.But, one thing you will need to address if you use this method - the image must be in RGB format - InDesign will not convert this linked image when exporting to ePub. In contrast to a compromise, it is a win—win situation for both parties, because nobody has to back down.

The art of dressing without dressing up. Are we capable of doing what we want to do? The result in this case is a two-dimensional table although a morphological box can have up to four dimensions.